Republicans Weigh Whether to Carry Latest House Speaker Nominee to Term or Abort

Within hours of winning the nomination, Emmer’s Speakership is already on the rocks, per multiple reports. Around 3 p.m. on Tuesday, CNN’s Melanie Zanona wrote that his “speakership bid [is] on the verge of collapse” while Punchbowl’s Jake Sherman wrote that it’s “in big trouble.” (In other words, within two hours of Emmer’s nomination, Republicans are already debating if they should get rid of him.)

For context, Emmer is regarded as more of a moderate Republican, and he currently has a target on his back among more aggressively pro-Trump House members following reports that he warned Republican candidates to distance themselves from Trump. (Emmer denies this.) Zanona further reported that far-right members take issue with his record on “social issues.” By Tuesday afternoon, former President Trump weighed in to blast Emmer as a “RINO” (Republican in Name Only).

But the idea that Emmer is a ~reasonable~ Republican by any stretch of the imagination is a complete fantasy. In 2020, the man signed onto a lawsuit to overturn the election results in key swing states Trump lost. Sure, he voted to codify a right to same-sex marriage, but he’s also repeatedly voted against abortion rights. Still, Emmer’s vote for the Respect for Marriage Act, in particular, is a source of tension among his more conservative opponents, including Rep. Rick Allen (R-Ga.), who told CNN on Tuesday he would not vote for Emmer because of this.

Funnily enough, one thing Emmer does seem to have going for him is the support of both Rep. Kevin McCarthy’s (R-Calif.) and Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), the far-right goon responsible for McCarthy’s (R-Calif.) ousting as Speaker earlier this month. Gaetz was reportedly “quietly helping” Emmer win votes throughout the five ballots and voted for Emmer during the roll call. Emmer may be the rare bridge between Gaetz and McCarthy’s two worlds…but their blood feud remains strong: Just last week McCarthy openly admitted to “screaming” at Gaetz during a heated internal caucus meeting, telling reporters, “I think the entire conference screamed at him … The whole country I think would scream at Matt Gaetz right now.”

As House Republicans move forward (or whatever it is they’re doing) with Emmer, there’s cold comfort in hearing that they also hate themselves as much as the rest of us hate them. McCarthy recently called the caucus’ inability to select a Speaker “embarrassing” for the party and “for the nation” on Tuesday, swiping at Gaetz and the seven other Republican members who ousted him: “It’s frustrating because it’s just a few, these eight, working with all the Democrats to ruin the reputation of the Republicans.” Last week Rep. Austin Scott (R-Ga.), who was also running for Speaker on Monday, said the ongoing Speaker circus “makes us [Republicans] look like a bunch of idiots.” He said it, not me!

Per some reports, there are some House Democrats that could be moved to not vote at all, diplomatically handing the Speaker gavel to Emmer, who they see as a better option than, say, Jordan—especially if Emmer commits to certain promises around the federal budget to avert a government shutdown next month. Of course, striking such deals with Democrats could also cost Emmer the Speakership as it cost McCarthy.

All of that’s to say, yes, House Republicans have tenuously chosen Emmer, but this is clearly far from over. I am struck, yet again, by the nasty, catty, reality TV-like nature of this whole process—the shady interviews, the backdoor deals, the cutthroat voting, and brutal eliminations. It’s giving something between America’s Next Top Model and Survivor but with older, uglier, poorly dressed contestants. The best thing I can bring myself to say about all the many failed Speaker candidates is they’re all 60+ years old and camera trained—which makes them perfect candidates for the next season of Golden Bachelor. So, there’s that!