Each Academy Awards season, FiveThirtyEight methodically analyzes nominations and wins for awards “that historically predict the Oscars.” As of February 22, they have finalized their predications—and yes, they believe Leo will finally attain a statuette of his very own.
In order to achieve an accurate forecast, the site employs the following model:
“The model relies on the idea that the best looks into the minds of Oscar voters are the guild and press prizes that precede the Academy Awards...Oscar nominees get points for being nominated or winning other awards that historically predict the Oscars. The better a historical predictor a given award is, the more points it’s worth.”
Here are the final picks for the top categories:
Best Supporting Actress: Kate Winslet or Alicia Vikander, “most likely the latter.”
Best Supporting Actor: Walt Hickey writes, “my model says [Sylvester] Stallone, my brain says [Mark] Rylance, but my heart says [Mark] Ruffalo.”
Best Actress: Brie Larson, with a note that “it would be shocking” if she did not win. Fine with me—girlfriend is absolutely sublime in Room.
Best Actor: Hickey grumbles, “Ugh, Leo.” At this point I’m not sure whether we’ll laugh harder over a DiCaprio win or—far less likely—a loss.
Best Director: Alejandro G. Iñárritu
Best Picture: The Revenant, to which I say bah! My heart shattered after Carol was snubbed in the nominations, but I would be very happy to see Room win.
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