Wow.

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1. There is NO photographic evidence of the supposed bombing. Suicide bombings are loud, heard across long distances, and aren't easy to ignore. If it really happened, why hasn't the gov't splashed it all over TV? They are in control of those images.

2. The gov't is the only one reporting it. No one in the opposition party has confirmed in online, instead, they keep asking each other to call so-and-so's cousin that lives nearby and confirm that it happened.

3. Khomeini is INCREDIBLY popular among almost all Iranians. An attack on his shrine would be an offense to many people even within the opposition camp. The gov't reports indicate that someone within the opposition camp was responsible, therefore trying to create discord among their own.

I hope I explained that clearly. He normally emails me by this time, I'm actually a little worried that he's gone and joined the rallies today, as there are many reports of people dead in the streets.

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However, what we're seeing know is a brute indication that there have always been fissures and divides in the establishment (as their always are) -- all the opposition candidates, for instance, came up from the '79 revolution and from within the power centers of the Republic (as they would have had to, otherwise Khameinei and the Guardian Council would not have allowed them to run), but for a variety of reasons (not least, Ahmadinejad's abject failure to improve Iran's dire economic circumstances), many people, both inside and outside of the government became willing to give voice to those divisions. Then, the stealing of the election was too blatant, too obvious, and then Khamenei made what I think was the mistake of making it about himself and his authority yesterday. He's not revered, he's not well-liked, and he's not even necessarily respected anymore. At a certain point, technical absolute power becomes just that, and people will push you out of the way.

(Though, I rush to add, all I know is what I've read in a few books and on the Web this past week -- this is not my field, and I know no-one in Iran).

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It's worth noting that many in the clerical establishment of Iran have never made their peace with the notion of a clerical state, or a Supreme Leader, as Shi'ites have always held that clerics should not be directly involved with government. (Many see this as a dangerous "innovation," a loaded word in Islam). I suspect that the other thing we may be seeing here is a more realistic reckoning of where the clerics themselves actually stand, and being human, they are much more divided than the Republic or we have ever been willing to admit before.

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