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Which Other Awards Shows Best Predict The Oscars?

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picardia
01/22/09

In reply to Which Other Awards Shows Best Predict The Oscars?
"The Dark Knight" was overlong and overblown. It was two great movies mashed together to make one merely good one. Heath Ledger was the only truly great thing about that movie, which crammed the Harvey Dent story into an implausibly brief time frame, featured a wooden lead performance by the usually-better Christian Bale and ended on a totally false note of "self-sacrifice" that I did not buy the necessity or sincerity or for one second. Gripe all you like, but the Academy got that one right.
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barzzini
01/22/09

In reply to Which Other Awards Shows Best Predict The Oscars?
In Bruges was my favorite movie this year. Colin Ferrell was awesome. Where is the love?
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brendastarlet is on it
01/22/09

In reply to Which Other Awards Shows Best Predict The Oscars?
Melissa Leo seems to have gotten the nomination that Sally Hawkins should have received for Happy Go Lucky.
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ArtfulSlinger
01/22/09

In reply to Which Other Awards Shows Best Predict The Oscars?
Ugh. I woke up this morning and was all excited and as usual the Academy let me down hardcore. No Dark Knight or Wall-E for best picture? Seriously? So I guess those of us who made the mistake of spending $500MM dollars on TDK last year were just boneheads? Wall-E could have been one of the best pictures of all time, but because it doesn't have Angelina whining about some shit, it doesn't get a real nomination?

Rosemarie DeWitt not getting nominated is also a insanely bone head move, but the Supporting categories were the most interesting. I guess everyone got balls since they knew who the winners were gonna be in both categories since November.

But The Reader for Best Picture? Apparently if Wall-E was a holocaust movie staring Liam Neeson or Ralph Fiennes it would have been a shoe-in. BOOO!
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murphygreen
01/22/09

@ArtfulSlinger: Holocaust movie=Oscar. Ricky Gervais never lies!
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Flackette Goes Retro
01/22/09

@murphygreen: His reference to that at the Golden Globes was brilliant.
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murphygreen
01/22/09

In reply to Which Other Awards Shows Best Predict The Oscars?
The only good nominations were Marisa Tomei, Mickey Rourke and Michael Shannon. I'm sad Sally Hawkins or Kristin Scott Thomas didn't get nominated over Angelina (who was AWFUL in Changeling, by the way: "Give me baaack my son waah wahh")

And both The Dark Knight and The Wrestler were snubbed for best pic...??

EPIC FAIL (I shake my fist in your general direction academy) tsk tsk.
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Flackette Goes Retro
01/22/09

@murphygreen: I did not enjoy Happy Go Lucky very much, but I think Sally Hawkins definitely deserved a nomination. She acted the hell out of that weird little role.
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onestrawplz
01/22/09

@murphygreen: I don't think The Wrestler was snubbed, I find it highly overrated, sorry.

The Dark Knight would never be a Best Picture contender. Heath Ledger as best Supporting Actor, certainly, but TDK certainly wasn't the best movie made last year...
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autonaimee
01/22/09

In reply to Which Other Awards Shows Best Predict The Oscars?
Well, if Kate Winslet wins the Oscar for best actress, hopefully she can muster a better acceptance speech than that faux suprised and overwhelmed act she put on at the globes. She's had 5 other chances to practice afterall.
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Fridge Hussy : Is finally heading back to uni!
01/22/09

@autonaimee: I love her, but the ordinary-girl-from-Reading is a little much sometimes.
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Fridge Hussy : Is finally heading back to uni!
01/22/09

@Perla: ...from-Reading schtick, rather.
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TurtleSpeak
01/22/09

@autonaimee: Nonsense! Love her! Loved her speech!
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morninggloria
01/22/09

In reply to Which Other Awards Shows Best Predict The Oscars?
Anyone remember "Mathnet" from the educational PBS after school program "Square One"?

Ok. Anyone remember the episode where someone was trying to sabatoge The ASFAS (The Award Show For Award Shows)?

This post definitely reminded me of that episode, and made me want a time machine to the early 1990's so I could watch me some Mathnet.
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Fridge Hussy : Is finally heading back to uni!
01/22/09

In reply to Which Other Awards Shows Best Predict The Oscars?
I don't know about their accuracy, but I prefer the BAFTAS. Eddie Murphy was once nominated for his role in Shrek, and Jamie Bell won for Billy Elliot over Rusty Crowe for Gladiator.
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Khrushchev
01/22/09

@Perla: That's what I want to see. More child actors and voiceover work. (This sounds sarcastic, but it isn't!)
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pamplemousse (nee twinpeaks)
01/22/09

In reply to Which Other Awards Shows Best Predict The Oscars?
All I know is that I saw Slumdog Millionaire this past weekend, and it was by far the best movie I saw this year! I hope it wins!

And Milk comes in a close second.
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brendastarlet is on it
01/22/09

@twinpeaks: I've seen everything but The Reader, which I read in English and German, and which I have no interest in seeing. (Too much like homework.)

I think it's a contest between Slumdog and Benjamin -- the upstart movie versus the big studio film. I don't think Milk has a chance, sorry, even though I enjoyed it, and there won't be that many people who actually saw Frost/Nixon.
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onestrawplz
01/22/09

@brendastarlet is on it: I actually think Milk has the upperhand. Slumdog is another huge favorite. I can't even see Benjamin winning for anything. It's a long shot at best.
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katie.scarlett.o'hara
01/22/09

In reply to Which Other Awards Shows Best Predict The Oscars?
Aren't the SAGs the best predictor? Aren't a lot of the people who vote for the SAGs also in the Academy?
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brendastarlet is on it
01/22/09

@katie.scarlett.o'hara: yes, absolutely. When it comes to the Oscars, the actors vote for the actors, the directors vote for directors, etc. Everybody gets a vote for Best Picture.

SAGs are the best predictors for the acting awards, just as the DGAs are the best predictor for the Directing award. Best Picture is harder to predict.
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BabyJane
01/22/09

In reply to Which Other Awards Shows Best Predict The Oscars?
Oscar just rips off the BabyJane Awards. That's the show that's held in MY HEAD! It's really quite fabulous, I even got Cher to do my red carpet interviews! Sadly, last year ran a little long.
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sportz.star
01/22/09

In reply to Which Other Awards Shows Best Predict The Oscars?
Kate Winslet won best supporting actress Golden Globes for The Reader and that role gets her nominated for Best Actress at the Oscars. I haz a confuzed.
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brendastarlet is on it
01/22/09

@sportz.star: it's because she was nominated for Best Actress for Revolutionary Road at the Globes. They gave her two nominations to increase her chances for one Oscar.
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Flackette Goes Retro
01/22/09

@brendastarlet is on it: Yet the Globes considered her role in The Reader to be "supporting" and the Oscars have nommed her for "leading" actress in the same role. I haz a confused.
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sportz.star
01/22/09

@Flackette is a Red State Elitist: Exactly. That's my confusion. What's the line between supporting/main and why is it different from the Globes to the Oscars?

Sometimes people are nominated twice in the same category if they have two different roles, so brendastarlet, I don't get the explanation.
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lalaland13
01/22/09

@sportz.star: I think the Academy can vote you into another category if they see fit. Sure looks like both roles were more lead than supporting, so I have no problem with her getting lead for The Reader.
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BrutallyHonestBabes (aka Mrs. Sarah.of.a.Lesser.Hobbit)
01/22/09

In reply to Which Other Awards Shows Best Predict The Oscars?
I can give you the definitive answers tonight. I'll take today's Variety home - my cat picks the winners according to which she blesses with a hairball. She has a 97% success rate! I let her pick my husband, too, and I've only been sorry 3% of the time.
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BabyJane
01/22/09

@BrutallyHonestBabes: Can I please take your cat to the race track?
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la.donna.pietra
01/22/09

@BrutallyHonestBabes: All mine ever pick is a carpeted or dry-cleanable surface. You're lucky.
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aisuru113
01/22/09

In reply to Which Other Awards Shows Best Predict The Oscars?
And again animamated features get shafted.
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Samanthrax
01/22/09

@aisuru113: I think Wall-E would have been nominated for BP is it were not for that animated feature award. Such a good movie, animated or not.
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Hazel
01/22/09

@aisuru113: arent they in their own category?

also, waltz with bashir in nominated in best foreign.
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hortense
01/22/09

In reply to Which Other Awards Shows Best Predict The Oscars?
I think the box office also has a lot to do with it- the momentum a movie has right before the nominations. And also I think the various regional guild awards, LA Film Critics, NY Film Critics, etc, have some pull as well.
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