SPENCER: Steve Schmidt, the Bush-Cheney 04 veteran managing McCain's campaign, is a man of subtle tastes, according to Newsweek's Holly Bailey:

In GOP circles, Schmidt's nickname is "The Bullet," both for his gleaming shaved head and the way he relentlessly seeks out his target. (When he can, he lets off steam at the gym by practicing Ultimate Fighting techniques.)

MEGAN: I shudder at that. You know he asks women to call him that in bed. Or men. Either way. "Oh, God, Bullet, yes, pierce me! Fire it into me! Explode in me like you're a hollow point!"

SPENCER: No word on whether he practices his moves outside the locker room. But we have the verdict on Schmidt's "message control... specialty," about a week-plus after the launch of the Hate Talk Express, and here it is:

Overall, Obama is leading 53 percent to 43 percent among likely voters, and for the first time in the general-election campaign, voters gave the Democrat a clear edge on tax policy and providing strong leadership.

It gets so, so, so much better from there.

McCain has made little headway in his attempts to convince voters that Obama is too "risky" or too "liberal." Rather, recent strategic shifts may have hurt the Republican nominee, who now has higher negative ratings than his rival and is seen as mostly attacking his opponent rather than addressing the issues that voters care about. Even McCain's supporters are now less enthusiastic about his candidacy, returning to levels not seen since before the Republican National Convention.

MEGAN: You know you are the worst Republican strategist in the history of the universe when you make voters believe that your candidate is worse on taxes and the economy than the Democrat.

nearly as many said they think their taxes would go up under a McCain administration as under an Obama presidency, and more see their burdens easing with the Democrat in the White House.

SPENCER: So great fucking job, Steve Schmidt. You've erased McCain's convention bounce, entrenched Obama's margin, and tarnished, forever, McCain's brand. Let's go back to Holly's piece for one second:

MEGAN: I really think that he's Mark Penn levels of terrible.

SPENCER:

Schmidt never wanted to get back into presidential politics. But he admired McCain's willingness to buck convention and go up against his own party, and joined the Arizona senator as an unpaid adviser.

MEGAN: Do you know Holly? Is she always so naive? Schmidt was just so taken with his little Maverick that he couldn't resist doing something he never wanted to do again?

SPENCER: It certainly is bucking convention to accuse the likely next president of the United States of "palling around" with terrorists who blew up the World Trade Center and use a line — "Who is Barack Obama?" — that comes out of the imagination of an anti-semite. I don't know Holly and didn't think her Schmidt profile was naive. It read to me like she wrote it deliberately flat in order to give Schmidt the rope to hang himself.

MEGAN: Well, that last quote was giving more credibility to Schmidt's personal mythology than it deserved, in my opinion.

SPENCER: And he's not just hung himself, he's hung the entire GOP. After a week of "turning the page" — a Bartlett's-level classic line from campaign director Rick Davis — from the economy to AYERSTERRORISTARABN*****, downballot Republicans in blood-red states think McCain is taking them down instead of Obama:

Rep. Mark Souder, an Indiana Republican, said he was looking at an "Obama tide" in his district and wondering about his own reelection: "Can I withstand a firestorm?"

"The impression of McCain on the economy is that he wanted more deregulation than Bush" at a time that voters are demanding more help from the government, he said. "I'm not sure right now that McCain can carry seven states," added Souder, whose home state has not picked a Democrat for president since 1964. "In the end I think McCain will carry Indiana. But if you are fighting for Indiana, you are in trouble."

Here's my question for you: isn't it preferable for the GOP to have nominated McCain, the Deviationist, in a year when it was all but destined to lose, so that it has an alibi for conservatism? "If only we had nominated a real conservative, a Rock of the True Church, this calamity would have never befallen us..." etc etc?

MEGAN: I mean, I think the problem with that narrative now is twofold, which is not to say they won't try it out. First, he was pretty well enthusiastically embraced by the conservative machinery after he swore fealty to the elimination of my reproductive rights and played the hell out of his conservative record on other issues. Two, he was beloved for choosing Sarah Palin, who is even further to his right and there's plenty of evidence that her nomination did him no favors. I am sure that the party will do some soul-searching in November — hopefully without the violence some of us fear, but they should have done that after 2006 and didn't. Instead, you got Boehner and Cantor and Blunt and DeMint and Coburn stepping up the partisanship, swinging to the right and generally echoing their already-failed tactics. Tom Davis said six months ago ago that if the GOP brand was dog food, they'd pull it from the shelves and I think that holds. Also, every time I hear "the party of staying out of people's lives" I yell back at the TV "unless you have a uterus." That's the fundamental conflict, and it's not resolve-able. Either they go back to being small-government and fiscally conservative, or they embrace the big-government interfere-y mentality of the culture wars on things like abortion, same-sex marriage and abstinence-only education. But I think they're seeing they can't have it both ways.

SPENCER: Well, there is a third option, one that defers a moment of conservative reckoning, and that's to establish a narrative that "thugs" and "poverty pimps" — you know, those people — stole the election. Tom Mattzie:

n the event that campaigning, purging and intimidating voters doesn't work, the Right is creating a myth like they did in 1960. They are creating the myth of a stolen election. Conservatives plan to claim that ACORN and Barack Obama stole the election. Their hope is to steal the legitimacy of what is looking like a massive repudiation of Bush, conservatives and the Republican Party. The Right plans to steal the election by trying to steal the legitimate defeat of them by progressive forces.

And why wouldn't they? The entire Republican coalition could be shattered with this election. White suburban voters who once voted Republican on tax issues are running away from Republicans on a host of issues—including taxes. Independent are looking more and more like Democratic voters.

More than anything else, I think that's what's behind the Hate Talk Express. Schmidt probably recognizes that they've lost, and he and Rick Davis are setting up a strategy to tear down President Obama through charges of illegitimacy.

MEGAN: Republicans have been gunning for ACORN for a damn long time. I think the problem is that attacking them only plays to the base.

SPENCER: But that's only a problem if your strategy is to play beyond the base, and at this point that's doubtful. The McCain campaign's last big push to win the election came with the failed attempt at "suspending" the campaign. Everything since has been to generate the result of preparing for the 2012 campaign. Or, perhaps, something far more sinister. I can't post images, but this is something that got banned from Say Anything, a right-wing Pajamas Media blog: an image of Obama and a noose, with the caption, "The Fucking Solution."

MEGAN: Oh, I can post images (and a shout-out to Jill Filipovic for alerting me to this in the first place). I mean, how stupid do you have to be, honestly? That's the shit that makes me believe in the reverse Bradley effect. Like, I wouldn't want to tell people like him that I was voting for Obama, but I sure as shit wouldn't want that guy's candidate fucking elected. I wouldn't want to be associated with that, even if I were a Republican.

SPENCER: Let's also not forget this model citizen who held up a stuffed monkey with an Obama sticker and, smiling, told a cameraman "This is Little Hussein."

MEGAN: I feel like I owe someone a beer or something.

SPENCER: The last thing I'll say here: Last night I watched Dodgers-Phils game 3 — shitty game — with a friend who has great sources on the right, and he reported that this isn't a cynical push. The right has convinced itself that Obama is in fact a threat to the country, and not in any policy-minded sense.

MEGAN: Oh, I have evidence of that on my Facebook page alone.

SPENCER: My question: at what point does this actually become a long-term electoral liability for the GOP? Or am I searching for a theory of political gravity that doesn't exist?

MEGAN: I think that the GOP has set back a good decade of outreach to minority communities, including the Latino community. Between the foaming-at-the-mouth for a big fence and this kind of shit coming out of Republicans about the Scary Black Man That Will End This Country, that's the end of it.

SPENCER: But what's the end, really? Doesn't it actually come when whites stop buying the GOP dog food? As James Baker once memorably said, "Fuck the Jews, they don't vote for us anyway." You know?

MEGAN: And I think a lot of people on the margins — the people who were already registering as independents, the people who were leaning libertarian, the people for whom this kind of race baiting in an anaethma, the people who remember the party of small government — for this, this will be the end. McCain the Maverick was supposed to be their guy, the Republican for Republicans disenchanted with Bush and Gingrich. And, instead, he's worse than either in the end for the party. I had a piece of RNC memorabilia for my ex's dad, who worked every convention except this one for the last 30+ years. He turned it down yesterday. That's not a good sign

SPENCER: Ironic: the conservative 2008 strategy is like al-Qaeda in Anbar Province. Its natural constituencies reject the severity of its rule, renounce its appeal, and — at least transactionally — turn to their ostensible enemy.

MEGAN: On the other hand, who knew the libertarians might end up as a credible third party?

MOE: Hi, what's going on. I'm tired. Your boy Mark Penn and Karen Huges sure look like the match made in Hell, no?
MEGAN: What is it they say about when lions and lambs lay down together? I'm not sure whether the rapture has already happened and I just didn't notice what with living in D.C. and all and no one going missing, or if the apocalypse is starting, or if D.C. is really just purgatory.
MEGAN: Also, the Clinton camp: pissed and somehow surprised that Obama's big donors haven't given them more money to pay off the debts they accumulated after winning became a mathematical impossibility. Also pissed that Obama won't give them his small donor email list to spam with requests. Like, for real. If you have him $5, she wants your email address to be able to ask for for $100.
MOE: Better idea: Roger Ailes! Sean Hannity! Get Bill Kristol to write about in his column! And surely Rush can afford to pitch in what with the four hundred million dollars and everything. He's got some listeners too I have heard.

MEGAN: I mean, it only seems fair. His minions supposedly help keep her in the race, he wouldn't want the small business people (who probs vote Republican anyway, or will now that the Dems are dicking them around) to not be able to feed their families!
MOE: Hey, this guy looks like he's got some pull with the plutocracy, maybe hit him up too. Don't click if you don't want to stab yourself. I actually might write a letter to the WSJ on the breathtaking inanity of this argument.
MEGAN: Did you know I used to work for the nonpartisan Tax Foundation?
MEGAN: I doubt Scott crunched those numbers, but hey Gerald! Hope your wedding was beautiful!
MEGAN: Also, don't know if you missed this yesterday, but Obama's Social Security funding plan is probably a good part of what's got their knickers in a twist.
MEGAN: So, like, you (and your employer) pay Social Security on the first $102,000 of your income
MOE: Hahahaha what he says, it's soooo nuts! It's like an argument you'd find in a time capsule from 1978 you'd look at and go, "Well, I suppose back then it sounded like he had a point, but the thing they didn't quite realize then is that when rich people pay fewer taxes they don't really generate economic growth outside themselves, and maybe the Caymans and a bit of Shenzhen."
MEGAN: And everything after that is SocSec tax free. Obama thinks that between the cap (adjusted yearly for inflation) and $250,000 (probably not adjusting for inflation, though that's not clear), you wouldn't pay more. After that, if you made more than $250,000, you would resume paying Social Security taxes of 2-4% on those earnings — and so would your employer, creating a small disincentive for paying you more.
MOE: Tom Frank's tilting yard is up your alley, on the corporate push to actually draft some legislation for once, so Comrade Obama can't immediately draft a 5 Year Plan.
MEGAN: Well, I would disagree slightly with the assertion that all the Republican Congress members are retiring just to cash in as lobbyists (they'll have to wait 2 years, except for Trent Lott who only has to wait out this year because of when he retired). I actually think it's because they're a bunch of whiny little idea- and idealless babies who are taking what remains of their balls and going home because they don't like playing if they're not on the winning team.
MEGAN: Other than that, that's an excellent analysis.
MEGAN: So did you want to talk anything about James Baker and Warren Christopher saying there needs to be a new War Powers Resolution, not that the one we have has ever been invoked?
MEGAN: Or would you prefer to fuck any further serious discussion and skip straight to the Formula One guy's Nazi sadomasochistic sex scandal? Because, I can't lie, I read one of those articles more thoroughly than the other.
MEGAN:

In arguing that The News of the World was guilty of a “gross and indefensible intrusion,” he has spoken candidly of his passion for sadomasochism, which he has told the court has lasted for 45 years.

MOE: Please tell me more about the F1 guy. I never could quite follow that one and the Jalopnik guys seemed to be all over it. Also, what is even up with sadomasochism? I'm so ignorant. And innocent! Whatever it is sounds better than Ashley Alexandra Dupre's reality show .
MEGAN: Dude, for REAL, I do not understand reality TV.
MOE: I love the TNR homepage link to book review: Have Freakonomicists Actually Revolutionized The Way We Think About Happiness? Or just the Hackness To Which We Will Stoop In Our Headlines?
MEGAN: Ok, so, like Max Mosley is an important guy in Britain and his parents were, like, British gentry but also really into Hitler back when Hitler was still alive and stuff. And then a Brit tabloid got video of him participating in a really, really long S&M session with 5 women that played on prison fantasies but apparently also had some Nazi overtones (the word Aryan was used!) and now he's suing them for invasion of privacy and in the trial everyone is like, I like pain! With sex. The end.
MOE: Neither do I, for the record. I just don't get it. Interestingly, even Tracie, the other night when we were hanging out engaged in one of those deep intellectual conversations we have all the time, was like, "I'm over it. I never thought I'd say this but it's possible for something to be too stupid for me to watch."
MEGAN: Also, only in wealthy Britain would your husband of 40 years like getting caned to the point that it leaves marks and draws blood regularly (or enough for him to differentiate between caning, whipping, beating and spanking) and you not notice the marks. Like, for real. Did they sleep bundled?
MEGAN: As for the deal with S&M, I mean, I'm no afficianado, but I think it speaks to the reality that the brain really is the only true sexual organ.
MOE: Can braindead people get off? I don't really think I believe it. Re reality TV it looks like some guy from the first season of the Real World is running for Congress, which I suppose is just another sign of our generation passing the Pointlessness baton to the Youngs. I suppose I ought to give mine up too but first I want to write a post on whether Charlize Theron is actually smart.
MEGAN: Um, I think all I can say after reading that is: Brooklynites, please vote for Ed Towns.
MOE: Have you been reading any of these space dominance stories? Because I keep meaning to and not. Are we worried China's space program is going to find a place to launch excess emissions before we do and leave us to be dessicated by the global warming Dick Cheney is still maintaining does not exist?
MEGAN: I'll confess, the last story I bothered clicking on about space travel was this one about fucking in space.
MEGAN: But, no, because we're going to pump all our carbon dioxide into the empty pockets under the sea from whence we will be extracting oil, so it'll all be fine. Once we, like figure out how to do it.
MOE: Here's another headline I like: "Meet Huzaifa Parhat, who personifies the absurdity of U.S. policy in Guantanamo Bay." Uh, yeah, as opposed to all the other victims of U.S. policy in Guantanamo Bay. I saw that post on drudge. What's with the headlines today? "For Better of Worse, Sex In Space Is Inevitable." That's better than this post I saw on TNR the other day, "6 Reasons The Border Fence Is A Bad Idea." I am guiltier than anyone here but Jesus CHRIST I feel like building a border fence around the internet.
MEGAN: Maybe all the good headline writers took the week off and are vacationing with Jon Stewart?
MOE: No, they all took buyouts silly! My mom has been railing against the buyouts at the Washington Post. It's really odd to remember things like READERS ACTUALLY NOTICE.

MEGAN: Your mom might be the only one, though! The real question is whether Americans will notice the scaled-back convention coverage that's supposedly to "offset" the costs of Obama going to a bigger venue for his speech but is really just an excuse for the networks to do what then have been dying to do for years and cut back on boring convention coverage that no one watches anyway. Plus, they can't do it for the DNC and not not for the RNC so it's like a bonus.
MOE: I think w/r/t this War Powers Resolution act I would be part of the problem because I can't really finish the story and I know it has to do with the fighting over powers among the various branches of government and probably Dick Cheney knows best anyway right? But like, what does this resolution say? It was passed in pre-Watergate Nixon times…is it just really scary?
MEGAN: I mean, the thing is, that Constitutionally, to declare war on anybody, the President has to go to Congress to ask permission. But, like, that's haaaaard. So that's why Vietnam wasn't really a war and this isn't really a war, etc. And basically, since WWII, Congress and the Administration have tried to come up with a way to bypass Congress's Constitutional powers in the matter, because just like Americans supposedly all believe they'll be rich someday and thus supposedly don't want higher taxes on rich people, everyone on the Hill thinks they'll be President someday and thus is enamored with executive power, which is the thing our Founding fucking Fathers tried so hard to control.
MOE: Oh, and Osama Bin Laden's evildoer son looks young enough to be the son of OBL's other son, you know, the one with the British cougar wife who looks like she writes soft sadomasochistic erotica…ANYWAY, that made me think, when was the last time someone had a kid at the White House? What if the Obamas had another kid? I bet Rush would send the nicest presents.
MEGAN: So the War Powers Resolution sucks, and hasn't been used, and gives Congress very limited oversight and the Administration a lot of war-declaration power but it's never been used and Administrations have continued to drag us into armed conflicts that aren't "wars" by just going around it. Baker and Christopher suggest writing a new one with a robust role for Congress (thank GOD) — at least on the surface — as well as powers to the President but it requires oversight and consultation for any military action lasting more than a week, requires Congressional approval of military actions within 30 days (but exempts covert actions and response to terrorist attacks, SIGH, which just gives a reason for the next Bushie to declare that Iran is part of the War on al Qaeda or whatever but something is better than nothing).
MEGAN: And I love how the kid is against us, Britain, France... and Denmark. Denmark's probably all like, what the fuck, kid? We've got Danishes and beer and shit.
MOE: Anyway apparently this 16-year-old Hamza Bin Laden is Osama Bin Laden's "likely heir." Or, that is, according to the lofty source that is the Sun. OH, and I loved the Denmark thing too. Like, I bet we could write a comic book and get added to their terror list. Or maybe a YouTube video. Yes, that, exactly. Although, on second thought, I feel like I sort of know what it's like to be on a terror list. I'm back to joining the Iranian resistance if you're in.
MEGAN: Do I have to dye my hair dark like Ashleigh Banfield? Because I look really gothy with dark hair, even without the makeup. Not that I, uh, have any experience with that or anything. Nope.
MOE: Oh shit how did I miss this haha Republican convention planners want him out of town before McCain even gets there? Like, if you thought McCain's temper was reserved for Sandinistas and his wife you have no idea how he gets around his actual enemies.
MEGAN: Also, I love how they're floating that to see what the backlash will be to it.
MOE: I will say this, too: I was at this thing, the other night, called "Shoot The Messenger," and before the evening took a turn for the, er, interesting, the comics had a funny segment about who registered Republicans think John McCain should pick as a running mate, with 45% choosing John McCain 2000 for his appeal to the independents and 35% choosing John McCain 2004 for his appeal with supporters of the war. Anyway, it made me laugh. That is all.

MOE: Hahaha see I still have a soft spot for McCain 2008 God bless him'
MEGAN: You know, my grandmother (who I saw a week ago) said that she had been a huge Hillary supporter and was really disappointed that she lost, but no way in hell would she vote for 2008 McCain. She said she thinks he's senile and an idiot, and that it's his creeping senility that makes him so different in 2008 than he was in 2000 when she would have considered voting for him. My grandmother, by the way, is 81.
MOE:

"You know that old Beach Boys song, Bomb Iran?" he said, then sang "Bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran" before discussing what he considered Iran's serious threat to Israel and international security.

MOE: There is a storied history in the Tkacik household of cracking senile jokes as early as age 10, for which we ended up coining the blanket rejoinder "Yeah, grandpa." So like, I have a total weakness for the Grandpa humor. I could write a book of tasteless Grandpa jokes throughout history even. Anyway, just a thought. Not that I don't love the crowd here! I feel like the news is BORING today. Is it me?