John McCain Should Not Look So HappyJohn McCain should probably not look this happy, what with Obama killing it his commercial last night and then double-teaming it with Bill Clinton in a rally. But between annoying P.U.M.A.s, the media helping him out in his criticism and plenty of prognostication about how he could still win, I guess he does have a few reasons to smile. Luckily, HuffPo's Jason Linkins is here to comfort me with thoughts of what Tucker Bounds will be doing come December and why Nate Silver is a better Nerd Hottie than Chuck Todd.MEGAN: What's up with you? JASON: I am great, and I want to avoid any sort of controversy with the loyal Jezebel readership right off the bat. Yes. I am a Virginian and I will be voting in this election. I am personally offsetting Nancy Pfotenhosenblitzenpantz's vote, for America. MEGAN: And I plan to offset Mr. Pfuckingsucks' vote. I don't think almost any of McCain's other advisers actually vote in swing states. Ha-ha, suckers. JASON: Ana Marie would probably know that for certain, but yes, let's assume that the rest of McCainland is registered to vote in Waziristan. MEGAN: Well, one assumes Schmidt votes in California, Rick Davis seems like the sort of insufferable prick who lives in Potomac and Salter seems like he would actually live in DC. Shit, I take it back, Davis lives in Alexandria (I just looked it up). Can your wife offset him? JASON: Indeed, she can. The rest of your contention is well within the realm of possibility, with the exception of Rick Davis, who is an insufferable prick, as proven by science. I think that the Draper piece from NYT Magazine gets a little bus-throwy-undery with him, doesn't it? Just my impression. Rick Davis and Charlie Black are the Dark Sith Lords of the McCain campaign. MEGAN: My upstairs neighbor can offset Tucker Eskew, another Alexandrite. Who knew all the Republicans lived there? Fun campaign finance fact? Mr. Kurt Pfuckingsucks is indeed a McCain donor — as of last month. Wonder how long she withheld marital favors for that? Oh, and he donated under another McCain campaign finance reform loophole that allows him to take public financing and yet still accept money for things like legal and accounting expenses. You betcha. JASON: Ha! I am sure that he caved quickly, though it is fun to imagine a Lysistrata scenario in that household. No matter what happens in the election, I'll tell you what, it's going to be excellent to take a break from seeing many of these people on teevee. And most especially: THE END OF CAMPAIGN EMAILS. Goodbye to the Obama campaign's breathless and earnest pleas. So long to Alex Conant, furiously massaging his twig of a cock over every little objection he can have with the Obama campaign. And especially: BYE BYE BUTT BOY TUCKER BOUNDS. I hope the next thing I read from him is a suspicious Craigslist ad seeking some middle aged woman to pound his ass with an egg beater while dressed up like Campbell Brown. I'll look at it, and smile. "That'll do, Tucker," I'll say, "That'll do." MEGAN: I really think a potato masher would be more painful. JASON: I concur. Also, more suited to the task. MEGAN: Just so long as he doesn't make her video the thing for RedTube or something, because you know I'll be Google Image searching for a picture of him in 6 months and see that and end up in the fetal position crying. JASON: Of course, I suppose that as a member of the media, I should whip out the Don't Count John McCain Out card that we're handed when we finish filling out our I-9 forms. MEGAN: Right, right, blah, blah, he could still win it! I mean, even my most rabidly Republican friend thinks: a) he's lost and b) the Socialist-Marxist crap is just stupid. And this is from someone I wouldn't have been surprised to hear say it. JASON: But, honestly? I'm pretty much planning for the moment I get to finally start counting McCain out. The polls may have tightened a smidge, but it doesn't appear to be moving in McCain's direction in a concerted or significant way. And, to put a finer point on it, I'll kick it to Nate Silver:
John McCain is NOT gaining ground in the states that matter the most. The top tier of states in this election are Virginia, Colorado and Pennsylvania. There is lots of lots of polling in these states, particularly in Virgnia and Pennsylvania, and it's all coming up in roughly the same range, showing Obama leads in the high single digits (in VA and CO) or the low double digits (in PA). The second tier of states is probably Ohio, Florida and Nevada. McCain seems to be getting a bit stronger in Florida; Obama seems to be getting a bit stronger in Ohio and Nevada. McCain does seem to have halted Obama's progress in some of the third-tier states, particularly Missouri and North Carolina. On the other hand, some other third-tier states, like New Mexico and particularly New Hampshire (where Obama is getting some insane numbers lately), now appear to be off the table.
MEGAN: We'll then have to pit hottie Nate Silver against Nerd God Chuck Todd's analysis, which is less rosy:
If they show up and vote, then Obama's margins will shrink dramatically because McCain — as I've argued before — will garner some 70+ percent of the undecided vote. What does this mean for the map? It puts a lot of states into too close to call territory, including North Carolina, Florida, Indiana, Ohio, Missouri and Nevada. The problem McCain has is that a movement of undecided voters toward him might not be enough to stop Obama in Colorado, Virginia and Pennsylvania.
Really, Chucky T? Seventy percent of undecideds will break for McCain in 5 days? Those don't seem like actual undecideds, then. JASON: Well, look, I think Chuck Todd is not totally out of bounds to suggest that might happen, but if he's still going to concede Colorado, Virginia, and Pennsylvania, then that's the whole shooting match, right there, isn't it? MEGAN: I just feel like, fuck, man, Obama got Fukuyama, but he'll lose 70 percent of undecided voters? Let alone all the other Republicans he's picked up. I'm pretty sure McCain win over every, last bitter and annoying P.U.M.A., but that's about it. JASON: Well, it's all on the Obama team's GOTV effort, now. It's up to them to prevent their guy from getting pipped at the post, here. What does winning over every last PUMA even get you? Doesn't that still leave you a few dollars short for a bag of eggrolls? MEGAN: Also, on the P.U.M.A. front, can I just say how fucking annoying it is that all these Hillary Clinton supporters, piqued about sexism can't just quietly and bitterly go vote for McCain, they have to write shoddy missives on the Daily Beast about how personal this all is for them that have either nothing to do with policy or are just bitterness couched in a completely irrational, meritless and lacking-in-facts policy argument, thus extending the media narrative about irrational and emotional women voters? Arguably, making sexism worse, not that getting McCain into the White House would make sexism better and not make it worse anyway, but still... JASON: Well, look. PUMA has no policy argument. They have no political argument. This is like a group of like-minded, needy, sad people for whom having a Facebook group wasn't enough. Were they able to cast their vote next week for Hillary, they'd still be terribly useless to her because it's clear they don't give a tinker's damn about Hillary's point of view on the world and what America needs policy-wise. These are people who simply insist that America recognize their specialness. They won't be the reason McCain wins, they won't be the reason Obama loses. They won't be anything, but the memory of some addled fucksticks who yelled at Chris Matthews and had a website. I mean, the people who voted for Nader? They were some self-aggrandizing, self-absorbed turds right there. But they at least impacted an election. Also: they have good weed. MEGAN: Yeah, I mean, Nader's the only one that ever seemed angry. Even if the PUMAs had weed, good or otherwise, I feel like all that anger would totally harsh the mellow. JASON: PUMAs are like al Qaeda, if you could build them a universe on some holodeck to frolic in, shape the way they wanted, they'd happily take that and live there. They're really not all that interested in participating in the building of a nation with the rest of us. They just want their own precious FEELINGS enshrined in the national consciousness. Now, of course, if everything goes according to projection, and McCain loses, we still have to contend with another rough beast, unleashed on America this year, slouching her way toward Washington YOUBETCHA. MEGAN: Now, that's unfair, Sarah Palin has excellent posture. It's really difficult to slouch in 4 inch heels. Believe me, I've tried. Also, if she appoints herself to Stevens' seat next year, can we comment on the hilarity that the three states with all-female Senate delegations will be California, Maine (assuming Collins pulls it out) and Alaska — and that 4 or those 6 women are Republicans? JASON: Is that right? Who's the other Maine Senator? MEGAN: Olympia Snowe. JASON: Oh, of course! Well, I feel a lot safer with Collins and Snowe in the Senate than I do with Palin, fo sho. MEGAN: Collins and Snowe are, you know, actual mavericks that don't vote with GWB all the time. Funny how that works. JASON: Overnight, the McCain camp spit back on the contention made by ABC News, that Palin had basically done this interview with Elizabeth Vargas and had become more or less totally fixated on her future. Team McCain's beef in this is legit. MEGAN: Yeah, I was reading that. Why the fuck would they do that? JASON: Why would ABC do that? Who fucking knows. They probably wanted to get in on some of that sweet Palin 2012 action. Make the competitors sick for their big scoop. I don't know. There are obviously, bottom line motivations underpinning these decisions. MEGAN: Like, helping out Fox News? Proving Mark Salter right about the media? JASON: Well, now, let's not go sucking Mark Salter's dick just yet! MEGAN: I can pretty well swear that I will never, ever suck Mark Salter's dick.